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Nov. 4th, 2009 @ 01:13 am
"A free-spirited gypsy, Reinhardt wasn't the most reliable person in the world, frequently wandering off into the countryside on a whim. Yet Reinhardt came up with a unique way of propelling the humble acoustic guitar into the front line of a jazz combo in the days before amplification became widespread. He would spin joyous, arcing, marvelously inflected solos above the thrumming base of two rhythm guitars and a bass, with Grappelli's elegantly gliding violin serving as the perfect foil."

The fact that these two lines stand out to me - and are connected in my head - may be indicative of how badly I really want and need to go on a long walkabout... 

46.1 mpg Oct. 2nd, 2009 @ 11:15 am
Not bad for mostly short trips and city driving.  I was hoping for closer to 50 - but let's face it, that would only represent an extra 35 miles per fillup, and a savings of less than 10% on gas.  Given that I don't drive very much to begin with, I'm still relatively pleased :)

I love my little Yaris!

Could Detroit be the new renaissance city? Sep. 25th, 2009 @ 01:30 pm
Austin in the 80s was hit hard by an oil and housing bust - and the resulting cheap housing fostered dozens of "garage" and "basement" entrepreneurial tech businesses.

I keep hearing about Detroit's troubles and thinking - could they do the same?

Perhaps, perhaps not.  Austin was helped by UT and a well-educated population base.

On the other hand, I keep hearing that Detroit is more heavily populated by those who graduated from high school only, and banked on generous union jobs to move them into the middle class.

Still - all of that vacant space should go for rock-bottom prices.  Could it be worth it for a whole bunch of folks to move there?

Right symptom, wrong cause... Sep. 18th, 2009 @ 01:11 pm
"It has become lethal to be uninsured, said Woolhandler, an associate professor of medicine at Harvard."
                     - CNN, Sept 18 2009

The big story out these days is the number of people who die because, having no health insurance, they delay going to the doctor or hospital because they're scared of the cost.

The story is spun as a reason to reform the health insurance industry, but in my opinion, this analysis completely misses the point.

Did these people delay going to the hospital primarily because they didn't have insurance?

OR

Did they delay because the cost of getting health care - ANY health care - is inflated beyond belief?

Among other things, the AMA unduly restricts the suppy of doctors in this country.  In addition, the legal industry guarantee that care must be platinum-plated with all possible bells and whistles in order for doctors and hospitals to avoid lawsuits.  These issues, and more, mean that you cannot find affordably priced health-care solutions in this country - meaning that the only way people can get care is by pooling their money into health insurance schemes.  This is WRONG - rather, individuals should be able to afford basic health-care - even basic emergency care - on an average middle-class salary.  This used to be true in the 1800's in this country (before the first wave of "health care reform" - i.e. employer provided insurance plans) - and is still true in developing countries around the world.

When you can get the same care for orders of magnitude less money in India - you know that the markets have been manipulated beyond belief in the USA.  Mandating that individuals buy health insurance will NOT fix the problem, since it does not address the root cause - i.e. sky-high medical costs.  And, of course, these costs are caused in part by government regulation of health care in the first place.

A thought on Traffic Jams and the Credit Crisis Sep. 17th, 2009 @ 08:47 pm
Reading a comment that claims economists didn't see the Credit Crisis coming...

What this means to me, is that bare-bones economic theory sees no problem with ever-increasing debt levels.  People should still be able to work in order to service their debt, and greater access to money should give them extra resources to realize greater productivity gains.

Well, except that it all comes crashing to a halt when the banks get nervous and start calling in outstanding debt.

Kind of like traffic jams.  The theory is that traffic on a modern highway shouldn't have to slow down as the highway gets more congested - instead, traffic should continue to move freely at speed, and the only result should be that the cars get closer together.

Which might work great w/ computer control - but the trouble is that people get spooked in bumper to bumper traffic, and tend to hit the brakes more often, which sends ripples of slow moving traffic up the freeway.

Could you explain both with the same equation?
Other entries
» In this present crisis...
"Government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem!"
      - Ronald Reagain, 1981 inaugural address

Once again - if you look beyond all the hot air behind this "health care reform" plan - all it boils down to is that you and I will have be forced to pay more just to live and breathe.  The quality, availability, and affordability of health care in the United States will not change - instead, all that will change is that you will be forced to pay for an insurance plan whether you want it or not.  Bah!  This is not a benefit to the individual - instead, it's a benefit to the insurance industry and the medical establishment, and nothing more.

Much better options, that actually address the REAL issues:
    - admit more students to medical schools, rather than letting the AMA artificially restrict the supply of doctors and other health care professionals
    - enact some form of tort reform - less doctor liability means lower malpractice insurance premiums, and less practice of (expensive!) defensive medicine
    - cut hospital waste.  Why is it that, without health insurance, you can still afford procedures at a hospital in India, but you can't here?  The Indian doctors and hospitals claim it's because they pay more attention to waste - and I believe it.

Mr. President - if you really want to make a difference in health care, you ought to be focusing on restoring the ability of the individual to afford basic healthcare WITHOUT having to purchase insurance.  I could do this in Africa and Asia - why can't I do it here???  Answer - because in our infinite wisdom, we've decided that nothing less than platinum-plated health care will do.  I, on the other hand, would be happy with the basics - and if I come down with something I can't afford to fix, then I'll just cork off like they used to do in the old days.
 
» Yowza...
A 40-year-old Zimbabwean primary school teacher in a high-density area of the capital, Harare, tells the BBC News website why he has ended his five-month strike after the new power-sharing government started to pay salaries in foreign currency.

A month ago, he explained how he could not afford to work, as his monthly salary of 30 trillion Zimbabwe dollars was only worth US$1 (71p) - enough to pay for a single bus fare to work.

(BBC News, 26 Feb 2009)

» Google Trends is fascinating
"algebra", "great depression", "economics" show similar patterns - and I think I know why ;)

"monopoly" shows a different pattern. I think I can guess at that, too...

DAMN but you could teach a really kick-ass economics and statistics class these days!
» Prudent Judgement or Moral Hazard?
Facts:
- only a small percentage of the stimulus funds have been spent so far
- stimulus funds are expected to be spent gradually over the next two or three years
(http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=2870)

This may be prudent to smooth the economic recovery and avoid a massive "whiplash" shock due to funds too rapidly spent and then gone before things are fully recovered, but...

With the remainder to be spent in 2011 and an election in 2012, might one not read "between the lines" that a certain party wants to make sure they get re-elected?

Not that I necessarily begrudge them that if the economy does eventually get back on track. Trying to get a little extra "juice" in the economy just before an election appears to be a long and hallowed tradition, dating back to Nixon and earlier. Plus - who doesn't work hard to keep their job?

Just as long as the refrain isn't "too little, too late" as we head into 2012...
» A random thought...
If you're familiar with how HAL (the computer in 2001) was named, then you'll realize that there were other options that could have worked as well:

Jason (JCN)
Katie (KDO)
Elly (LEP)
» Yikes!!!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/23/business/economy/23dollar.html?_r=1&ref=business

Of note:
"On Thursday, the influential bond fund manager Bill Gross of Pimco said in an interview on Bloomberg Television that the United States might eventually lose its triple-A credit score."

GE and Berkshire Hathaway were definitely surprising downgrades - but - THE US GOVERNMENT???
» Pure Genius!!
A long, long time ago, there used to be a show on PBS called "Square One TV", which aimed to teach math to kids. It only lasted a few seasons, but a number of the skits were pretty memorable.

I recently found that some of them persist on YouTube - and what can I say but "wow!" - they're even better than I remember! Pure genius! Such a shame that it went away...

Witness:


and


and


and, perhaps the cutest of all:


"I'll be oooold by the time I get there!"

They're also responsible for "MathNet" - referenced by today's xkcd - which was what got me digging in the first place...
» Fear itself...
Perhaps I am attuned to it more than most, but the general atmosphere of fear can be a bit unnerving at times. Casual conversations on a spring evening turn to lists of folks who have lost jobs or who are worried that they might lose their jobs in the future. It's at times like these when I have to continually chant a mantra in my head to keep from going nuts:

a) I am one of the most frugal people I've ever known - the only ones who truly compare are Ghanaian friends that I had while in the Peace Corps. Ergo, if frugality will help people get through this mess, then I should be well prepared.

b) I have always instinctively prepared for Armageddon. (well, except for the guns'n'ammo bit - not really my thing, and I'm hoping it doesn't come to that) Plus - I have third world experience living through almost-armageddon conditions. (though not at the level of present-day Zimbabwe...) In some sense, the feeling of impending doom oddly makes me feel more at home here...

However, I'm worried for my parents, who are valiantly trying to prepare for retirement - and for my sister, who's got two kids who will ultimately need to use that college fund that's been gutted by the drop in the stock market. Here's hoping that things turn out OK, and that we don't eventually end up heating our houses by burning $20 bills... (That really happened in pre-WWII germany, by the way)
» OK - it was fun for awhile, but can we get this recession over with now?
Recessions, at a gut level, have always been confusing to me. Just before, we're all spending money like it's nothing, and then suddenly nobody's spending any money at all. Just before, banks would make crazy loans w/ no paperwork - just after, they won't lend anybody anything.

After six months of this, I really want to shake some sense back into folks... But I suppose people have to finally put something back in their piggy banks after furiously emptying them for the past decade.

Why can't you folks just settle on a SUSTAINABLE, LONG TERM STANDARD OF LIVING???!!! This boom bust cycle gets old, fast!
» Hopeful
Ok - maybe it was short on specifics, but I liked Obama's speech last night. We've been screwed over and hollowed out for too many years by short-sighted Wall-Street interests. We really desperately need to trade the shell game for honest work - for once, shipping real products and expertise overseas. Wouldn't it be great if we could finally become the "we can build it" nation again? (And perhaps it won't take full scale armageddon in the rest of the world to make that happen this time around)

My Dream:

We finally focus on education and smart engineering. We stop wasting resources, and finally build cost-effective, material and energy-efficient products, and become known around the world for our know-how.
» Home-grown terror?
What Bin Laden couldn't accomplish, it appears Thain and Lewis can.

Today, I'm feeling mighty sick of the bu**sh** shell game that is american capitalism.

The cake is a lie!
» I'd have to agree...


(Pat Bagley, Salt Lake Tribune)
» Desperate measures for desperate times?
Ref: letter to congress

Excerpt:

The report shows that marijuana legalization -- replacing prohibition with a system of taxation and regulation -- would save $7.7 billion per year in state and federal expenditures on prohibition enforcement ... If ... marijuana were taxed similarly to alcohol or tobacco, it might generate as much as $6.2 billion annually.

Wow - isn't that a nearly $15 billion boost to the budget, in total? And plus, it'd save Michael Phelps' butt...
» DOW 5000?
There used to be an adage - "buy when the DOW yields 6%, sell when it yields 3%".

W/ current dividends, it'd have to hit 5200 to yield 6%.
» To continue in the same vein...
I should explain the motivation for the post yesterday:

I was having a conversation recently with a generally quite intelligent friend, who currently believes that the global warming argument is not yet conclusive - especially when compared with the cost of a drastic change in human behavior to combat it.

I was caught off guard - and realized I didn't have much more to offer than anecdotal evidence and the "hockey stick" graph. I also remembered having seen ice core graphs that showed the world in the middle ages a fair bit warmer than it is even now. So - I felt like I really ought to take the time and study thoughtful perspectives on both sides of the issue.

I don't have time to do it all in one day, but here's a start for today - I'll lay out major arguments against global warming that I've seen:

1. Human beings contribute a miniscule amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere - both compared to the total amount of greenhouse gas, and compared to the contributions due to natural processes.

2. The historical record shows that the earth undergoes large climate changes naturally - and the (relatively) recent past includes periods where temperatures were a fair amount warmer than today.

3. Climate scientists have "cried wolf" in the recent past, flip-flopping at least 3 or 4 times in the past 100 years. For all we know, the debate in the next 20 years may revert to the "big bad wolf" of the 70's - i.e., how to avoid the spectre of global cooling and the next great ice age.

4. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising - but they are the result, not the cause, of a general warming trend.

If there are any more I've missed - please let me know and I'll add 'em. Tomorrow I'll try to add the major arguments in the case case for global warming.
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